Global banks are still bust – MoneyWeek

Thekeytroublezoneistheprimemortgagesector,amuchbiggerpartofUSbanksloanbookthansubprime。 FromNovembertoFebruary,thenumberofdistressedprimeloansrosebya

Thekeytroublezoneistheprimemortgagesector,amuchbiggerpartofUSbanksloanbookthansubprime。

FromNovembertoFebruary,thenumberofdistressedprimeloansrosebyaround40%to1。

5million。

Alltold,therewerefourmilliondistressedmortgages,worth$717bn,inFebruary,saysBarryRitholtzonRitholtz。

com。

Expectalotmoredistressedsales,lowerhousepricesandfurtherstresstobanksalreadyuglybalancesheets。

SomuchfortheUS。

ButthingslookevenmoreuncertaininEurope。

Therehasbeennocontinent-widestresstesting,andtheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)reckonsthateurozonebankshavesofartakenjustafifthoftheirpotentiallosses,comparedto50%intheStates。

Yet,ifanything,Europeanbanksareevenmorevulnerable。

TheywerefarmoreleveragedthantheirUSpeers,andtheirassetsareworthabout330%ofGDP,comparedto50%inAmerica,reckonsJohnMauldinofInvestorsinsight。

com。

Theyrealsomoreexposedtodevelopingcountries。

Europeanbankswillcostmassiveamountstobailout,orelsetheireconomieswillimplode。

Note,too,thatthewholesalemarketisstilllargelyfrozen,saysRoche。

Asthingsstand,itwillprovideonlyafractionofthefundingthe22biggestglobalbankswillneedfromitby2011,whichmeanslendingwillberestrictedforyears。

Ratherthanareturntohealthycreditgrowth,welooksetforaJapanese-stylezombiebankingstructure。

NotexactlytheprospectenvisionedbybullshopingforaV-shapedrecovery。

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